Forbidden to study by Taliban, the Afghan woman uses technological skills to operate power

The Taliban presented for years a forehead united in the outside world and have kept a tight lid on dissent in its ranks.

But unprecedented demonstrations of discord have exposed the rockets of the secret militant group and exposed an intensive power struggle.

Internal divisions could spread in violence, warn the experts and trigger a new civil war that would further destabilize the volatile region.

“Despite a culture of secret and unity, there have recently been public disunity shows,” said Michael Semple, former EU and United Nations Advisor to Afghanistan. “These suggest that the movement is real tension.”

“Chaotic and uncertain”

In December, the Minister for Taliban Refugee, Khalil Haqqani, was Killed in a suicide bombing. He is the oldest official to be killed since the hard Islamist group took power in 2021.

In private, most Haqqani supporters accused his rivals in the Taliban of commanding his assassination, according to experts.

In January, a senior Taliban official left the country shortly after seeing the Taliban's spiritual leader, Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, who has the last word under the office led by the office.

“Follow him, but not to the extent that, God preserves us, you grant him the rank of prophecy or the deity,” said Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Taliban, according to a audio recording Released last month. “If you even deviated from the way of God, then you are no longer my leader, I do not recognize you.”

Stanikzai also criticized Akhundzada's ban on the education of girls, who provoked an international condemnation.

He confirmed that he was in the United Arab Emirates, but said it was due to health reasons. Reports Suggest that Stanikzai fled Afghanistan after Akhundzada issued an arrest warrant and ordered a travel ban.

Meanwhile, an increasing number of Taliban members have openly complained about the payment of their wages.

The Taliban denied that there are rockets in the group. Taliban chief spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid, told Private Tolo News Whether the group “will never engage in disagreements, will become a source of division or will not take measures that could lead to a misfortune or bring instability to the country.”

But several sources in the Taliban, who spoke to RFE / RL under the cover of anonymity because they were not allowed to speak to the media, described the current atmosphere as “chaotic” and “uncertain”.

The sources also said that officials had been prohibited from leaving the country unless they received authorization from Akhundzada.

“These developments suggest a real challenge to the unity of the movement, between these Taliban who feel marginalized and those who feel empowered,” said Semple, professor at Queen's Belfast University.

“We are now in a new territory. The political and military opposition to the Taliban is lower than in the 1990s,” added Semple, referring to the first passage of the Taliban in power. “But the expectations of the Afghan population are much higher and the levels of popular frustration with regard to the performance of the Taliban are unprecedented. Unhappy Taliban know it. “

Internal competition

The internal rifles in the Taliban have been more and more forward since the group found power in 2021.

Akhundzada, who rarely leaves his bastion in the southern city of Kandahar, monopolized power, marginalized more moderate figures and applied hard line policies that have made Afghanistan an international pariah.

Among the rivals of Akhundzada, there is Sirajuddin Haqqani, the Minister of the Interior of the Taliban and the head of the Haqqani network, a powerful faction which exerts a significant influence in eastern Afghanistan.

Others include Mullah Mohammad Yaqub, the Minister of Defense and the son of the group's founder, Mullah Mohammad Omar, as well as Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, who headed the group's political bureau in Qatar and is the vice-premier of the Taliban cabinet.

“Recent events, in particular tensions between different factions within the Taliban, are an important challenge for their unit, but they are not the only ones or necessarily the greatest threat,” said Hatef Mukhtar, director of the center of Afghanistan for strategic studies.

There are divisions in the Taliban along the ideological lines. Some Taliban leaders want international recognition and economic investments, while others prioritize the application of the strict Islamic rule, even at the cost of isolation, said Mukhtar.

The growing influence of management based in Kandahar at the expense of the former commanders of the battlefield and the political bureau is also a source of tension, said Mukhtar.

Meanwhile, the Islamic Group of the Khorasan Staff (IS-K) continues to threaten the Taliban, testing the group's ability to maintain security.

Stressing this threat, IS-K claimed the responsibility of a bombardment of suicide outside a bank in northern Afghanistan on February 11 which killed five people, said the Taliban. But two Taliban sources, which spoke under the guise of anonymity because they were not allowed to speak to the media, said that at least 14 had been killed in the attack, including group members.

The government short of money and unrecognized by the Taliban has also undergone increasing financial pressure.

President Donald Trump froze all foreign aid, including in Afghanistan. This is likely to worsen the devastating humanitarian crisis in the country. Meanwhile, the value of the national currency, the Afghani, has dropped in recent weeks, triggering price increases.

Experts say that if the Taliban showed resilience in the management of internal litigation, the climbing of tensions could threaten the group's cohesion.

The most likely scenario is “low -level intestinal struggles, internal assassinations and purges rather than open military confrontation,” said Mukhtar.

“But if the Taliban fail to address its internal divisions, Afghanistan could possibly see another cycle of intra-Islamist conflict,” he added.