Principles and stages of population growth – Track2training

By Shashikant Nishant Sharma

Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) was a religious, a scholar and an English economists known for his influential theories on the dynamics of the population. His work “An essay on the principle of the population” (1798) threw the basics of demographic studies and influenced generations of economists, decision -makers and scientists. Malthus proposed that demographic growth, if it was uncontrolled, would inevitably go beyond food production, leading to famine, diseases and societal collapse. This essay explores the principles of the population of Malthus, the stages of population growth and examines them with justifications and appropriate examples of contemporary history and society.

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Malthusian principles of the population

The theory of the population of Malthus revolves around two key principles:

1. The population is developing geometrically (exponential growth)
   According to Malthus, human populations tend to develop in a geometric progression (that is to say 1, 2, 4, 8, 16…), dubbing every 25 years if they are uncontrolled. This rapid growth, he argued, is driven by the natural reproductive trends of humans.
2. Food supply is arithmestically developed (linear growth)
   On the other hand, Malthus thought that agricultural production increases only in an arithmetic progression (i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 …), limited by land availability, soil fertility and technological constraints. Consequently, food production cannot follow demographic growth over time.

From this imbalance, he concluded that demographic growth would eventually go beyond the means of subsistence unless “positive” And “preventive” Checks.

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Malthusian checks of the population

Malthus identified two types of controls to control population growth:

1. Preventive checks – These are voluntary measures to limit reproduction, in particular:
   • Moral retaining (delay in marriage, celibacy)
   • Birth control (although it is not explicitly supported by Malthus)
   • Societal standards limiting family size
2. Positive controls – These are natural consequences that increase the mortality rate:
   • Famine
   • Disease (for example, plague, cholera)
   • War
   • Natural disasters

These checks are the way in which the nature of the balance of the population and resources are restored when preventive measures fail.

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Criticism and relevance of Malthusian theory

Although revolutionary, Malthus' theory has been criticized to be too pessimistic and to underestimate human innovation. Critics, in particular during and after the industrial revolution, stressed that the technological progress of agriculture (for example, mechanization, fertilizers, GMOs) have enabled food production to keep pace or even go beyond population growth.

However, Malthus' ideas remain relevant in specific contexts:

• In Sub -Saharan AfricaMany countries are still faced with challenges such as food insecurity and high fertility rates.
• THE Rwanda Genocide (1994) is often cited as a tragic example where a high population density, a rarity of land and poverty have contributed to the conflict.
• The concept of “Charge capacity” In environmental sciences, often linked to Malthusian ideas, is used to assess the lasting limits of ecosystems.

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Steps of population growth: the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

Although Malthus has not described the change of population in stages, modern demography interprets its ideas in the Demographic transition model (DTM). The DTM describes five stages of population growth, reflecting changes in birth and mortality rates over time.

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Step 1: high stationary stadium

• High birth rate and high mortality rate cause slow population growth.
• Pre -industrial companies with health care, sanitation and mediocre food security.
• Example: medieval Europe, tribal communities in pre-modern Africa or South America.

Justification: The high mortality of diseases, famines and wars limits the expansion of the population.

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Step 2: Early expansion step

• High birth rate remain, but The mortality rate decreases Due to improving health, hygiene and food availability.
• Conduit population explosion.
• Example: many African countries today (for example, Niger, Democratic Republic of Congo).

Justification: Access to vaccinations, clean water and better nutrition reduces infant mortality, but cultural standards still promote large families.

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Step 3: Expansion step

• Birth rates are starting to fallwhile Mortality rates continue to decreaseslowing demographic growth.
• Transition to urbanization and industrialization.
• Example: India, Egypt and certain parts of Southeast Asia.

Justification: Increased education, especially for women, access to contraception and changes in societal values lead to smaller families.

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Step 4: Step with low fixing

• Low births and mortality rate stabilize the population.
• Seen in highly industrialized countries.
• Example: United States, United Kingdom, Australia.

Justification: A better standard of living, a high cost of children's education and a professional hierarchy leads to low fertility rates.

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Step 5: Decline step (optional / controversial)

• The birth rate falls below the mortality rateresulting in a decrease in the population.
• Aging populations and the reduction of workforce becomes major concerns.
• Example: Japan, Germany, South Korea.

Justification: High levels of urbanization, economic pressures and lifestyle preferences lead to fewer children.

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Contemporary relevance and neo-Mathusanism

Although classic Malthusian predictions do not fully materialize, the Neo-Malthusian The school emerged in the 20th century, highlighting concerns about overcrowding and deterioration of the environment. THE “Limits to the growth of the Rome club (1972) echoed the Malthusian themes, warning of finished resources and ecological collapse.

Today, global challenges such as:

• Climate change
• Water shortage
• Urban overcrowding
• Food insecurity in conflict zones

… Have revived interest in Malthusian thought, in particular for the development of policies, town planning and sustainability discourse.

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Conclusion

The theory of the population of Thomas Malthus, although developed two centuries ago, continues to influence the way in which we understand the demographic dynamics and the management of resources. Its main idea – this uncontrolled population growth has limits – is based on a fundamental concern in the globalized world today. Although technological progress has postponed the crises envisaged by Malthus, unequal development and ecological limits strengthen the importance of balanced demographic growth and the sustainable use of resources. The demographic transition model helps to contextualize your theory at different stages of development, reminding us that demographic change is not only inevitable but also manageable by informed policy, education and innovation.

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References

• Malthus, TR (1798). An essay on the principle of the population.
• United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Division of the Population (2025).
• World Bank. (2025). Fertility rate and demographic indicators.
• Dehalwar, K. and Sharma, SN (2025). Fundamentals of writing research and use of research methodologies. EDUDODIA PUBLICATIONS PVT Ltd.
• Dehalwar, K. and Sharma, SN (2025). Social injustice inflicted by spatial changes in vernacular contexts: an analysis of published literature.
• Dehalwar, K. (2015). Bases of the sustainability of the environment and the evaluation of the environmental impact. EDUDODIA PUBLICATIONS PVT Ltd.
• Dehalwar, K. and Sharma, SN (2025). Fundamentals of the appreciation of areas and perceptions of space.
• Sharma, SN and Dehalwar, K. (2025). Fundamentals of planning and design of housing.