Could an “Apocalypse work” led by AI pushing the best and most brilliant in teaching? – 74

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No one knows with certainty if artificial intelligence will leave millions of Americans without work, but there are already signs that “the apocalypse of the employment of AI”, as the The New York Times said itMaybe already arrived, At least for recent university graduates.

If this is the beginning of a trend, and not only a Blip, it has enormous implications for the education sector, because it raises questions about the types of jobs that students are ready to make.

But even if this phenomenon is short -lived – for example, if IA innovation soon creates new well -paid jobs for 22 years – it presents those of us in education K -12 with a golden and very opportune opportunity.

No, it is not to replace teachers with AI. For most kindergarten students to the 12th year, human interaction is probably as important as ever to help them learn.

But what he can help us to do – at least, to create the opportunity for us to do – is to recruit more talented college graduates in teaching. Graduates who are currently found with fewer employment opportunities.

It is not a pure conjecture. A 2020 seminal paper In the prestigious Journal of Labor Economics, the teachers who had entered the profession during the recessions were unusually effective in stimulating students' performance, especially in mathematics. In 2019, the co-author Marty west of Harvard said at 74 that the number of excellent teachers is “strongly influenced by the way in which attractive teaching is in relation to other jobs”:

When the recessions are wreaking havoc on the private sector, the profession becomes a security port for talented professionals – but as the economic image is clearing up, promising candidates are looking elsewhere and that educators in place are starting to organize for a better deal.

The country may or may or not go to a recession linked to prices, but a lowered labor market for college graduates should have almost the same effect with regard to the teaching profession in a security port for young people who cannot win jobs elsewhere.

Without a doubt, all graduates of the smart university will not be excellent teachers. But the lesson of other difficult labor markets is that the higher the pool of potential teachers, the more the quality of those who find themselves in classrooms.

Schools, districts and states could benefit from this increase led by AI in the recruitment of teachers without lifting their finger. But if they wanted to overcome the dynamics and completely eliminate teachers' shortages, there are specific actions they could take. And the sooner will be best. More importantly, they should increase the salary of new teachers. It's doing – but like Chad Aldeman recently arguedThis can only happen if administrators are starting to prioritize the quality of teachers to the quantity of teachers – and increase the wages of educators on hiring all kinds of non -teacher staff. This is certainly not what schools have done in recent decades.

While the registration of students decreases nationally and in many places, schools must also reduce inflated number of teachers and other staff members on their wages. The transition to thinner staffs and modestly larger classes would release even more resources that could be plowed in higher wages. Like Eric Hanushek and Macke Raymond Written earlier this monthSuch efforts have made a huge difference for students in Washington, DC and Dallas, especially when they are intended for the best teachers in the most necessary schools.

And although AI should not replace teachers, this could make them more effective and effective – so much so that schools could happen as many teachers, administrative staff and the rest of the army of people who now make up the majority of kindergarten employees in the 12th year.

There is no doubt that AI causes uncertainty and probably disturbances in the labor market. It is not great for young university graduates faced with a misty future. But it can be great for American students from kindergarten to the 12th year, if administrators and political decision -makers act quickly.

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